The busiest open questions on the prediction markets, followed as stories. Each page shows where the odds stand, marks the developments that moved them, and says what is coming that could move them again. Every line cited. Nothing here is advice.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28 to decide on a potential interest rate hike following a 25-basis-point increase on September 16. The committee announces its decision on October 28 as policymakers monitor Consumer Price Index data to determine if another increase is necessary this year.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in all September 2026 public polling, while the Kalshi market places the probability of a Democratic victory at 61 percent. The general election on November 3, 2026, determines if a Democrat wins a Texas statewide office for the first time since 1994.
Bitcoin trades at $72,000 on Sept. 26, 2026, as prediction markets price a 70% probability the asset reaches $90,000 before year-end. The Securities and Exchange Commission is scheduled to finalize Regulation Crypto Assets following its Aug. 18 proposal to create a specific framework for investment contracts.
Democratic candidate Troy Jackson holds a 62% probability of defeating Republican incumbent Susan Collins in the November 3 election. The Maine Secretary of State must certify the results or conduct ranked-choice tabulations if no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain tied in polls for the October 4 presidential election. The Superior Electoral Court begins releasing official vote totals at 17:00 on election day to determine if a candidate secures the 50% majority required to avoid a runoff.
The Republican party holds a 26 percent probability of winning the Texas Senate seat by at least 3 percentage points. The Texas Secretary of State certifies the official election results after the November 3 vote to confirm the final margin.
U.S. and Iranian officials negotiate a phased agreement to end the naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by September 24, 2026. Negotiators now work toward signing a new memorandum to replace the expired June agreement.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in polling as of Sept. 22, 2026, with a $23.3 million to $6.5 million cash-on-hand advantage. Campaign finance regulators release third-quarter reports in October 2026 before the Nov. 3 election.
U.S. Central Command maintains a pause in air strikes against Iranian territory following the September 1 mission that hit 60 targets. Observers watch for U.S. air strikes, missiles, or drones impacting Iran before the September 30 market milestone.
Republican Bo French and Democrat Jon Rosenthal compete for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission in the November 3, 2026, general election. The Texas Secretary of State must certify the official results before the winner takes office in January 2027.
The Department of Defense is maintaining thousands of troops in the Middle East through 2027 while the Pentagon drafts plans for ground operations on Kharg Island. Defense officials are preparing for a potential strike against Iranian targets as Congress debates war powers.
Kalshi market participants price the probability of a Republican victory margin of at least 3 percentage points at 69 percent. The Texas Secretary of State releases live and provisional returns after polls close on November 3, 2026.
Once a day the busiest open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are ranked by volume. Sports contracts are left out: they settle on a scoreboard, not in the news.
Each market gets a standing watch on the news that bears on its question. Odds refresh every hour from the venue; a development is posted only when something new appears, cited to its source.
When the venue settles the market, the page closes with how it ended and stays online as the record. Categories on the list today: fed, Elections, bitcoin, politics, iran, military-strikes.
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