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Fed Decision in December?

Traders price a 77% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the federal funds target range by 25 basis points on December 10, 2026. The central bank will publish the official FOMC statement and the new target range at that meeting.

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Polymarket77%25 bps increase+10 pts · 7dcloses in 2 months$1.8M traded
25%50%75%
  1. 25 bps increase77%
  2. No change20%
  3. 50+ bps increase2%
  4. 25 bps decrease2%
  5. 50+ bps decrease0%
market on Polymarket ↗

The story so far

written Sep 29

What is happening

Borrowing costs for U.S. consumers and businesses depend on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision scheduled for December 10, 2026 [1][2]. Traders currently price a 77% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at that meeting [2]. A smaller 20% segment of the market anticipates the central bank will maintain current rates, while expectations for larger hikes or rate cuts remain at 2% each [2].

What to watch

The Federal Reserve will publish the official FOMC statement and the upper bound of the federal funds target range on December 10, 2026 [1][2]. A press conference transcript and formal meeting minutes will follow to confirm the specific policy shift [1]. These official releases will determine if the target range aligns with the 25-basis-point increase currently favored by market participants [2].

Read the full brief · how we got here

How we got here

The FOMC sets the federal funds rate during eight scheduled meetings each year to influence national economic activity [2]. The committee uses these sessions to adjust the target range based on its assessment of inflation and employment data [2]. The December 2026 meeting serves as the final policy session for the current calendar year [1].

References · 2
  1. [1]federalreserve.gov — The Fed - Transcripts and other historical materials
  2. [2]federalreserve.gov — The Fed - Economy at a Glance - Policy Rate - Federal Reserve Board

What would close this

0 of 4 met
The Federal Reserve publishes the December 2026 FOMC statement confirming the target federal‑funds range.open
The Fed releases the accompanying press conference transcript confirming any change.open
The Federal Reserve posts the official meeting minutes confirming the decision.open
The market’s resolution rule is satisfied by the published target range.open
If none of these happen, this page closes automatically on .

Timeline

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When we started following: Polymarket traders price 77% chance of 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December 2026

Traders on Polymarket place the highest probability on a 25-basis-point increase to the federal funds target range at the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The market currently prices a 25-basis-point hike at 77%, a pause at 20%, and larger moves or cuts at 2% each. The FOMC maintains a schedule of eight yearly meetings to set this rate, which influences borrowing costs and economic activity [2]. Official policy statements and transcripts for the 2026 period will be released following the meeting's conclusion on December 10, 2026 [1][2].

federalreserve.gov1federalreserve.gov2