livePolitics · checking daily

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson holds a 76% likelihood of becoming Prime Minister after the opposition bloc secured a 176-seat majority in the September 13 election. The Swedish Election Authority must now publish final certified vote totals before the Speaker nominates a candidate for a formal Riksdag vote.

This monitor

Status
Live · checking daily
Updated
Next check
in 22 h
Closes by
Sources tracked
168
Polymarket76%Magdalena Andersson−12 pts · 7dcloses in 9 months$9.3M traded
75%
  1. Magdalena Andersson76%
  2. Ulf Kristersson20%
  3. Ebba Busch2%
  4. Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist2%
  5. Jimmie Åkesson0%
  6. Anna-Karin Hatt0%

The story so far

written Sep 29

What is happening

Control of the Swedish government and the direction of national policy for the next four years depend on the Riksdag's ability to confirm a new head of government following the September 13 general election [4]. The Riksdag session opened today, September 29, which is the first date the legislature can legally vote to elect a new prime minister [6].

Magdalena Andersson currently holds a 76% likelihood of securing the office, while incumbent Ulf Kristersson holds 20%. These figures follow the Social Democrats earning 28.02% of the vote and 99 seats, contributing to a 176-seat majority for the four-party opposition bloc [2], [4].

What to watch

The Swedish Election Authority must now publish the final certified vote totals to formalize the seat distribution [1], [8]. Following this certification, the Speaker of the Riksdag will nominate a candidate for Prime Minister to face a formal vote in the chamber [7].

If the Riksdag approves the nominee, the new Prime Minister will be formally sworn in during a Council of State at the Royal Palace [6]. A successful vote for Magdalena Andersson would confirm the current market majority, while a failure to reach a majority would require the Speaker to initiate new rounds of negotiations [7].

Read the full brief · how we got here

How we got here

The incumbent Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, requested discharge from office on September 28 and currently leads a caretaker government [6]. This request followed the Moderate Party securing 19.85% of the vote and 70 seats in the September 13 election [2], [4].

The Speaker of the Riksdag began the formal process of government formation on September 17 [7]. Under the Swedish system, the Prime Minister is appointed through a vote in the Riksdag where the candidate is approved as long as a majority of members—at least 175—do not vote against them [12].

References · 7
  1. [1]val.se — Election results | Swedish election authority
  2. [2]electiomap.com — Sweden General election 2026 (Riksdag) — Results | ElectioMap
  3. [4]valresultat.svt.se — Valresultat 2026 - för riksdagsvalet, region- och kommunval
  4. [6]government.se — Prime Minister to lead caretaker government
  5. [7]riksdagen.se — The Speaker begins the process of forming a government - Sveriges riksdag
  6. [8]val.se — Election results 2026 - Riksdag, regional and municipal elections ...
  7. [12]val.se — Slutlig rösträkning | Valmyndigheten

What would close this

0 of 4 met
Parliamentary election held on 13 September 2026.open
Swedish Election Authority publishes certified vote totals.open
The Riksdag votes to appoint a Prime Minister.open
The appointed Prime Minister is formally sworn in.open
If none of these happen, this page closes automatically on .

Timeline

newest first
link

When we started following: Opposition bloc secures 176 seats in Swedish election as Kristersson government enters caretaker status

The four-party opposition bloc led by the Social Democrats secured a 176-seat majority in the September 13 general election [4]. Final results show the Social Democrats earned 28.02% of the vote and 99 seats, while the incumbent Moderate Party took 19.85% and 70 seats [2], [4]. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson requested discharge from office on September 28 and now leads a caretaker government [6]. The Speaker of the Riksdag began the formal process of government formation on September 17 [7]. The Riksdag session opened today, September 29, marking the earliest opportunity for the legislature to elect a new prime minister [6]. These developments support the 76% likelihood priced for Magdalena Andersson to become the next Prime Minister, compared to 20% for Ulf Kristersson.