- December 3117%
- October 317%
- September 300%
The story so far
written Oct 1What is happening
Global supply chains and energy costs depend on the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where commercial traffic fell 49% month-on-month in August 2026 to 1,165 total voyages [6]. Houthi forces are advancing along the Yemeni coast toward the waterway [5]. The U.S. Maritime Administration reported missile strikes on the tankers AMZAN and DAISY off Yanbu on August 24, 2026, as Houthi forces resumed attacks on commercial shipping [4]. These security threats and transit volume shifts determine if the strait meets the criteria for an effective closure.
What to watch
IMF PortWatch publishing a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals would settle the closure outcome. Conversely, the strait remains open if the same source publishes a 7-day moving average above 10 for 30 consecutive days.
An official statement from the Red Sea Authority or a comparable body would confirm if the strait is closed or reopened. The Polymarket prediction market provides a final resolution date of January 1, 2027.
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Operation Aspides faces chronic warship shortages as commercial vessels queue for naval escorts [2]. Despite these risks, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on September 25, 2026, that their AE19 and AE15 services will transit the Suez Canal rather than rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope [3].
While Suez Canal transits rose 28% year-on-year in August, the recovery of the Bab el-Mandeb has stalled [6]. Of the 44 ultra-large containerships that have transited the strait this year, 39 of those crossings occurred since July [6].
References · 5
- [2]lloydslist.com — Red Sea Risk - Lloyd's List
- [3]maritimebriefs.com — Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Adjust Red Sea Services Amid Security Concerns ...
- [4]maritime.dot.gov — 2026-013-Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and ...
- [5]portcast.io — Red Sea Shipping Today: Live List of Container Vessels at Risk
- [6]lloydslistintelligence.com — Red Sea Brief: 18 September 2026 - lloydslistintelligence.com
What would close this
0 of 4 metTimeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Bab el-Mandeb transits drop 49% month-on-month as Houthi forces advance and naval escort shortages persist
Commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb (BEM) strait fell 49% month-on-month in August 2026, totaling 1,165 voyages [6]. While Suez Canal transits rose 28% year-on-year in August, the revival of the southern chokepoint has stalled [6]. Houthi forces are currently advancing along Yemen’s Red Sea coast toward the strait [5]. The U.S. Maritime Administration reported the Houthis resumed attacking commercial ships, including missile strikes on the tankers AMZAN and DAISY off Yanbu on August 24, 2026 [4].
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that commercial vessels are queuing for naval escorts as Operation Aspides faces chronic warship shortages [2]. Despite these risks, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on September 25, 2026, that their AE19 and AE15 services will transit the Suez Canal instead of the Cape of Good Hope [3]. However, 44 ultra-large containerships have transited the BEM this year, with 39 of those crossings occurring since July [6]. The Hormuz data-tracking service continues to monitor live crossings as of October 1, 2026 [1]. These developments regarding transit volumes and security threats directly affect the conditions for the strait being effectively closed.