The story so far
written Sep 30What is happening
Global energy security and shipping costs depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial traffic remains at approximately 3 transits per day as of September 30 [2]. This volume is significantly below the pre-crisis average of 74 daily transits [2]. The 7-day moving average for ship arrivals must reach or exceed 60 for the market to signal a return to normal [3][5].
AIS monitoring for September 2026 recorded 567 total crossings, including 50 oil tankers [1]. This represents a decline from July, which saw 689 crossings and 106 tankers [1]. The current Polymarket contract for year-end normalization is priced at 20% for a "Yes" outcome [13].
What to watch
IMF Portwatch publishing a 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" for the Strait of Hormuz that is 60 or higher on any date before December 31, 2026, would settle the market as "Yes".
IMF Portwatch publishing a 7-day moving average that never reaches 60 through December 31, 2026, would confirm a "No" outcome.
A final market resolution posted on Polymarket after the December 31, 2026, cutoff would conclude the contract [13].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Daily transits through the strait fell by 95.1% during the peak of the maritime disruption between March and May 2026 [7]. The collapse in traffic followed the 2026 Iran-Israel conflict, which impacted global oil markets and primary trade routes [10].
Normalization is defined by the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average reaching the 60-transit threshold [3][5]. Current traffic levels of 3 transits per day mean this threshold has not been met as of September 30 [2].
References · 7
- [1]hormuz.data-tracking.net — Strait of Hormuz Monthly Ship Traffic Statistics
- [2]straitofhormuz.report — Ships Through Strait of Hormuz Today: ~3/day
- [3]ainvest.com — IMF Portwatch Metrics and Hormuz Reopening: Analyzing the September 30 ...
- [5]ainvest.com — Strait of Hormuz Resolution Rules and Market Pricing Dynamics
- [7]mdpi.com — The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruption: Empirical Assessment of Maritime Transit Collapse, Food Price Dynamics, and Multimodal Logistics Resilience
- [10]ierj.in — IMPACT OF THE 2026 IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT ON GLOBAL OIL MARKETS AND MARITIME TRADE ROUTES
- [13]polymarket.com — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
What would close this
0 of 3 metTimeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at 3 daily transits as September 30 deadline arrives
The 7-day moving average for commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 3 per day as of September 30 [2]. This volume remains significantly below the pre-crisis average of 74 daily transits [2]. AIS monitoring for September 2026 detected 567 total crossings, including 50 oil tankers, down from 689 crossings and 106 tankers in July [1].
Resolution of the Polymarket contract "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" depends on the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average reaching or exceeding 60 [3][5]. While some market analysis cited a September 30 deadline for normalization [3][5], the current Polymarket contract for year-end normalization is priced at 20% for a "Yes" outcome [Polymarket]. Daily transits fell by 95.1% during the peak of the disruption between March and May 2026 [7]. Current traffic levels of 3 transits per day [2] mean the 60-transit threshold required for normalization has not been met as of September 30.