- Andy Burnham78%
- Mohammed bin Salman71%
- Mark Carney69%
- Friedrich Merz68%
- Elon Musk59%
- Vladimir Putin56%
The story so far
written Oct 2What is happening
Diplomatic access to U.S. President Donald Trump determines the trajectory of trade and security negotiations for G7 and Middle Eastern partners through the final quarter of 2026. Market participants on Polymarket are pricing the probability of confirmed verbal interactions between Trump and five specific leaders by October 31. Trump met with U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham on September 22, 2026, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York [4][5]. Trump described Burnham as a "natural businessperson" and stated that U.K.-U.S. relations had improved [2][7].
What to watch
A public statement from the White House or the Saudi Royal Court would confirm any scheduled calls or meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman following their previous recorded communications [13]. Official itineraries for the remainder of October 2026 will determine if Trump holds further sessions with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney following their trade and border security talks on October 8, 2025 [1]. Confirmation of verbal contact with the remaining three individuals specified in the market would settle those respective contracts before the October 31 deadline.
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Trump and Burnham held a 40-minute session in September 2026 where they discussed AI, the Chagos Islands, and Iran [4][5]. Prior to that face-to-face meeting, Trump said he had spoken with the U.K. Prime Minister "numerous times on the phone" [3]. The interaction with Carney in October 2025 focused on energy and border security [1]. These events establish a history of direct communication with two of the five figures tracked by the October 31 market.
References · 7
- [1]wionews.com — Trump-Mark Carney Meeting: US President Trump Meets Canadian PM ... - WION
- [2]politico.eu — Burnham passes his first Trump test — but papers over the cracks
- [3]bbc.co.uk — UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets President Trump for the ... - BBC
- [4]mirror.co.uk — Andy Burnham pulls off tough first meeting with Donald Trump — and even ...
- [5]theguardian.com — Trump praises Burnham despite tensions over AI, Chagos Islands and Iran
- [7]theguardian.com — Donald Trump praises 'natural businessperson' Andy Burnham after first ...
- [13]presidency.ucsb.edu — Readout of President Donald J. Trump's Call with Crown Prince Mohammad ...
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Trump meets Canadian PM Carney and UK PM Burnham in bilateral talks
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on October 8, 2025, to discuss trade, energy, and border security [1]. The meeting follows a separate face-to-face interaction between Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham on September 22, 2026, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York [4][5]. During their 40-minute session, Trump described Burnham as a "natural businessperson" and stated that U.K.-U.S. relations had improved compared to the previous administration [2][4][5]. Trump also noted he had spoken with Burnham "numerous times on the phone" prior to their September encounter [3]. These confirmed interactions involve two of the five individuals specified in the October 31 market.