- ↑ 87,50084%
- ↓ 82,50067%
- ↑ 90,00064%
- ↓ 80,00046%
- ↑ 92,50044%
- ↑ 95,00030%
The story so far
written Oct 2What is happening
Institutional demand for Bitcoin through U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) determines whether the asset reaches price targets between $80,000 and $92,500 this month [1][2]. Polymarket prices the probability of Bitcoin hitting $82,500 in October at 78.5%, while the probability of reaching $90,000 is priced at 64% [1]. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $102.7 million in net inflows on October 1, following a return to positive territory after a single day of outflows [2].
What to watch
A proposed regulatory framework from the SEC would allow investment advisers and funds to self-custody crypto assets or utilize state trust companies [3]. Circle and the Hyperliquid Policy Center are currently pressing European Union officials regarding stablecoin reserves and perpetual contracts as part of a review of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation [4].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows during September, marking the second-largest monthly total since October 2025 [2]. A nine-day streak of $3.1 billion in inflows ended on Wednesday when $148.7 million exited the funds [5]. Macroeconomic data released September 30 showed a core PCE rise of 0.2% for August [6]. SEC Chair Paul Atkins introduced the self-custody proposal on October 1 [3].
References · 6
- [1]polymarkettrader.com — Bitcoin Odds on Polymarket Today: 84 Live Markets (Oct 2, 2026)
- [2]theblock.co — Spot bitcoin ETFs log $2.7 billion in September inflows as institutional demand holds
- [3]theblock.co — SEC proposes framework allowing investment advisers, funds to self-custody crypto
- [4]theblock.co — Hyperliquid Policy Center, Circle press EU on perps and stablecoin reserves in MiCA review
- [5]theblock.co — Bitcoin ETFs’ 9-day, $3 billion inflow streak comes to an end as $149 million exits the funds
- [6]theblock.co — Bitcoin steadies as soft PCE cools October Fed rate hike bets
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Bitcoin ETF inflows reach $2.65 billion in September as SEC proposes new crypto custody framework
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in net inflows during September, the second-largest monthly total since October 2025 [2]. While a nine-day, $3.1 billion inflow streak ended on Wednesday with $148.7 million in net outflows [5], funds reported a return to positive territory with $102.7 million in inflows on October 1 [2]. On October 1, SEC Chair Paul Atkins proposed a new regulatory framework allowing investment advisers and funds to self-custody crypto assets or use state trust companies [3]. Macroeconomic data from September 30 showed a core PCE rise of 0.2% for August, which analysts say reduces the likelihood of an October Federal Reserve rate hike and may support Bitcoin near technical levels of $80,000 to $82,000 [6]. Polymarket currently prices a 78.5% probability that Bitcoin hits $82,500 in October, while the outcome for hitting $90,000 is priced at 64% [1].