- James Talarico61%
- Ken Paxton40%
The story so far
written Sep 26What is happening
Democratic State Representative James Talarico leads Republican nominee Ken Paxton in all public polling conducted in September 2026, a result that would end a 30-year Democratic losing streak in Texas statewide elections [2][4]. The Senate Leadership Fund and Texas PAC committed $100 million to advertising for Paxton on September 23 to close a gap currently within the margin of error [2]. These developments place the probability of a Democratic victory at 61% on the Kalshi market for "Texas Senate winner?" as of September 26, 2026.
What to watch
The general election occurs on November 3, 2026, which will determine if a Democrat is sworn into the Senate for the term beginning in 2027 [4]. The Kalshi market for the winner remains open until the official closing date of November 3, 2027.
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May 2026 runoff election [4]. The primary campaign featured a three-way contest between Cornyn, Paxton, and Wesley Hunt before the May runoff [10]. Talarico entered the general election seeking to become the first Democrat to win a statewide office in Texas since 1994 [4].
References · 5
- [2]texastribune.org — Senate Republicans increase ad buy for Ken Paxton to $100M
- [4]abcnews.com — Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton works to overcome fundraising ...
- [5]politico.com — MAGA loves scandal-ridden Ken Paxton. Can they get him to the Senate ...
- [7]usatoday.com — John Cornyn weighs in on Ken Paxton in Texas US Senate race
- [10]texastribune.org — Cornyn, Paxton, Hunt battle for Texas GOP senate nominee
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Republicans commit $100 million to Texas Senate race as Talarico maintains polling lead over Paxton
Democratic State Representative James Talarico leads Republican nominee Ken Paxton in every public poll conducted in September 2026 [2]. The Senate Leadership Fund and its affiliate, Texas PAC, increased their advertising commitment to $100 million on September 23 to support Paxton in a race currently described as within the margin of error [2].
Paxton, who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May runoff [4], faces a $59 million fundraising deficit against Talarico according to recent Federal Election Commission filings [4]. Despite the polling gap, Talarico seeks to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas in over 30 years [4]. The outcome bears directly on the Kalshi market for "Texas Senate winner?", where Talarico is currently priced at 61% and Paxton at 40% ahead of the November 3, 2027, closing date.