LIVE: Texas Senate Election Winner

Polymarket64%James Talarico (D)+3 pts · 7dcloses in 30 days$2.0M traded

James Talarico (D)64%
Ken Paxton (R)36%

The story so far

written Oct 4

What is happening

Control of a Texas U.S. Senate seat rests on a narrow margin between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton as the general election enters its final month [1][2]. A Fox News poll of likely voters released Oct. 1 shows Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49%, a gap within the sampling error [1]. Talarico maintains a net positive personal rating of 8 points, while Paxton’s rating is underwater by 18 points, including unfavorable views from 32% of Republicans [1]. Polymarket prices Talarico at 63% and Paxton at 37% to win the seat.

Polling averages from late September place Talarico ahead by 2.2 to 3.1 points [2][4]. A ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8–11 found Talarico leading among independent voters 64% to 24% [6]. However, a Pulse Decision Science poll from Sept. 24–27 showed Paxton leading by 3 points [2]. Democratic voter engagement is currently measured at nearly three-quarters certain to vote, compared to 65% of non-MAGA Republicans [1].

What to watch

The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026 [2][11]. Results from this date will determine the winner of the Texas U.S. Senate seat [11].

Read the full brief · how we got here

How we got here

Talarico held a 6-point lead in a Sept. 8–11 Texas Pulse poll [6]. By late September, other surveys showed the margin narrowing, with one poll placing Paxton ahead by 3 points [2]. The candidates advanced to the general election following primary contests in March 2026 [18].

References · 6

[1]foxnews.com — Fox News poll shows Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race ...
[2]poliwave.com — Texas Senate Polls and Forecast 2026: Talarico vs Paxton | Poliwave
[4]uspollingdata.com — Texas Senate Race 2026 Polls: James Talarico leads
[6]usatoday.com — New Texas Pulse poll shakes up Paxton vs. Talarico Senate race
[11]voterhq.com — Texas 2026 General Election — U.S. Senator, TX — November 3, 2026 ...
[18]ksat.com — Texas U.S. Senate election results in the March 2026 primary

Timeline

newest first

Oct 04 · 12:07 PM UTClink

When we started following: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate polls as election enters final month

Democrat James Talarico maintains a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race as of October 2026 [1][2]. A Fox News poll of likely voters released Oct. 1 shows Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49%, a margin within the sampling error [1]. While Talarico holds a net positive personal rating of 8 points, Paxton’s rating is underwater by 18 points, with 32% of Republicans viewing him unfavorably [1].

Polling averages from late September show Talarico ahead by margins ranging from 2.2 to 3.1 points [2][4]. A ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8–11 placed Talarico’s lead at 6 points, noting he leads among independent voters 64% to 24% [6]. However, a Pulse Decision Science poll from Sept. 24–27 showed Paxton leading by 3 points [2].

Democratic engagement appears higher, with nearly three-quarters of surveyed Democrats certain to vote compared to 65% of non-MAGA Republicans [1]. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026 [2][11]. Polymarket currently prices James Talarico at 63% and Ken Paxton at 37% to win the seat.

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