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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Polling averages from June 29, 2026, show blocs led by Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu each projected to win 52 Knesset seats. The publication of official results by the Central Elections Committee following the October 27, 2026, election will determine which candidate the President of Israel tasks with forming a government.

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Polymarket42%Gadi Eizenkot−10 pts · 7dcloses in 28 days$40.7M traded
50%
  1. Gadi Eizenkot42%
  2. Benjamin Netanyahu31%
  3. Naftali Bennett14%
  4. Avigdor Lieberman3%
  5. Ofer Winter1%
  6. Itamar Ben Gvir0%
market on Polymarket ↗

The story so far

written Sep 29

What is happening

Control of the Israeli government and the direction of its military and domestic policy depend on the outcome of the upcoming national vote [3]. Polling averages from June 29, 2026, showed the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot and the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu each projected to secure 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset [2]. Unaligned parties were projected to hold the remaining 16 seats [2]. Individual party projections placed Yashar at 23 seats, Likud at 21, and Together at 11 [2].

Polymarket prices the likelihood of Gadi Eisenkot becoming the next Prime Minister at 42%, while Benjamin Netanyahu is priced at 32%. The government has operated without a full-time Interior Minister since the Shas party left the coalition in July 2025 [4][5]. The current coalition's legislative capacity fell to 60 seats following the departures of the Noam and United Torah Judaism parties [5].

What to watch

The elections for the 26th Knesset are scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026 [3]. The Ministry of the Interior began publishing final polling station locations on September 7, 2026 [3].

The publication of official election results by the Israeli Central Elections Committee will determine the final seat distribution. Following the results, the President of Israel will consult with party leaders before handing a mandate to a candidate to form a government [7][8]. The Knesset must then confirm the proposed coalition and designate the Prime Minister. The process concludes when the President signs the appointment and the new Prime Minister is sworn in.

Read the full brief · how we got here

How we got here

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, stating that investigations cannot take place during active military campaigns [1]. The coalition has recently pulled bills from the Knesset agenda due to a lack of a voting majority [5]. The departure of several parties from the government since mid-2025 has left the administration with 60 of 120 seats [5].

References · 7
  1. [1]haaretz.com — Reality Check: As the election nears, Haaretz debunks Israeli ...
  2. [2]haaretz.com — Israel 2026 Election Poll Tracker: The Latest Projections
  3. [3]gov.il — Elections to the 26th Knesset, October 27th, 2026
  4. [4]timesofisrael.com — Gantz pans failure to appoint new ministers for months as Knesset ...
  5. [5]timesofisrael.com — Coalition again pulls its bills from Knesset agenda due to lack of ...
  6. [7]timesofisrael.com — President to hand Netanyahu mandate to form government on Sunday
  7. [8]rawstory.com — Israel opposition chief Yair Lapid handed mandate to form government ...

What would close this

0 of 4 met
The Israeli Central Elections Committee publishes the official election results.open
The Knesset confirms the coalition and designates the new Prime Minister.open
The President of Israel signs the appointment and the new Prime Minister is sworn in.open
Polymarket’s market resolves to the individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister.open
If none of these happen, this page closes automatically on .

Timeline

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When we started following: Israel schedules Knesset elections for October 27 as polling shows Eisenkot bloc leading Netanyahu

The elections for the 26th Knesset are scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026 [3]. The Ministry of the Interior began publishing final polling station locations on September 7, 2026 [3]. As of June 29, 2026, polling averages from Channels 11, 12, and 13 projected the Eisenkot bloc to secure 52 seats, the Netanyahu bloc 52 seats, and unaligned parties 16 seats [2]. Individual party projections placed Yashar at 23 seats, Likud at 21, and Together at 11 [2].

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism for rejecting a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, arguing an investigation cannot occur during active military campaigns [1]. The government has operated without a full-time Interior Minister for several months following the departure of the Shas party from the government in July 2025 [4][5]. The coalition's legislative capacity was reduced to 60 of 120 seats after the Noam party left the coalition, following the earlier exit of United Torah Judaism [5]. These developments relate to the "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" outcome, which Polymarket currently prices at Gadi Eizenkot 42% and Benjamin Netanyahu 32%.

haaretz.com1haaretz.com2gov.il3timesofisrael.com4timesofisrael.com5main.knesset.gov.il6timesofisrael.com7rawstory.com8allisraelnews.com9timesofisrael.com10jpost.com11thepetek.com12