- Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win81%
- Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win14%
- Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win9%
- Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win5%
The story so far
written Sep 28What is happening
Control of the New Hampshire statehouse and a critical U.S. Senate seat depends on a narrow set of split-ticket voters as polling shows tight races for both offices [1][5]. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington 52% to 41% in a Siena College poll released Sept. 25 [1]. This follows a Sept. 24 University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey showing a narrower 47% to 43% margin, placing the gubernatorial candidates within the 2.6% margin of error [1][5].
In the race for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat Chris Pappas holds a narrow lead over Republican John E. Sununu [5]. These polling trends support a split-party outcome where Republicans retain the governorship and Democrats hold the Senate seat, a scenario priced at 82% on the Kalshi market for an Ayotte-Pappas victory [5].
What to watch
Voters will decide the governorship and the U.S. Senate seat in the general election on Nov. 3, 2026 [11]. Campaign finance disclosures are expected to follow recent reports of record-breaking fundraising by state Senate Democrats [10]. Candidates are currently engaged in active campaigning following the formal filing period earlier this year [8][9].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Governor Ayotte’s job approval rating stood at 47% in August 2025, with voters identifying education and immigration as primary policy drivers [2]. Democrat Chris Pappas officially entered the Senate race in June 2026 to seek the seat held by the retiring incumbent [8]. The UNH poll from Sept. 24 indicates that while the gubernatorial race is a statistical tie, Democrats maintain leads in races for the state legislature and Executive Council [5].
References · 7
- [1]270towin.com — 2026 Polls: New Hampshire Governor - 270toWin
- [2]newhampshirebulletin.com — Poll: Ayotte's approval dips; majorities opposed to budget cuts to ...
- [5]indepthnh.org — Warmington in Statistical Tie With Gov. Kelly Ayotte
- [8]hoodline.com — Chris Pappas Launches Senate Push in New Hampshire
- [9]news.rochesternh.gov — NH Secretary of State Reminds Candidates of Upcoming Filing Period
- [10]nhsenatedems.org — New Hampshire Senate Democrats Break Another Fundraising Record
- [11]seacoastonline.com — Your guide to the 2026 New Hampshire election, including Senate, gov
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Ayotte maintains lead in New Hampshire gubernatorial race as Pappas holds narrow edge for U.S. Senate seat
Incumbent Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington 52% to 41% in a Siena College poll released Sept. 25 [1]. This follows a Sept. 24 University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey showing a narrower 47% to 43% margin, placing the candidates within the 2.6% margin of error [1][5]. Ayotte’s job approval rating stood at 47% in August 2025, with voters citing education and immigration as primary drivers of their positions [2].
In the race for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat Chris Pappas holds a narrow lead over Republican John E. Sununu [5]. Pappas officially filed for the seat in June 2026 [8]. The UNH poll also indicates Democratic leads in races for the state legislature and Executive Council [5]. These developments affect the likelihood of a split-party outcome where Republicans retain the governorship and Democrats hold the Senate seat, currently priced as the leading outcome on Kalshi at 82% for an Ayotte-Pappas win.