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New Hampshire governor race – tracking polls and election outcome

Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a 55.5% to 44.5% lead over Democrat Cinde Warmington in an Oct. 13 forecast. The release of official certified election results by the New Hampshire Secretary of State will establish the winner.

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New Hampshire governor race – tracking polls and election outcome
Latest

New Hampshire Secretary of State distributes absentee ballots for general election

New Hampshire election officials have finalized the distribution of absentee ballots to all municipal clerks for the November 3 general election 1. The move initiates the final voting phase for qualified residents under the state's revised identification requirements 1.

  • Secretary of State David Scanlan announced October 14 that absentee ballots are now available for voters who meet constitutional requirements for temporary absence or physical disability 1.
  • Voters must provide a qualifying photo ID or a notarized application by the November 2 deadline to receive a ballot 1.

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Sources cited above

1 reference
  1. 1indepthnh.org — Absentee Ballots for the 2026 State General Election Available for New Hampshire Voters

The story so far

written Oct 14

What is happening

Control of the New Hampshire executive branch depends on the outcome of the gubernatorial race, where Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte holds an 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in an Oct. 13 forecast 1. The model projects Ayotte will receive 55.5% of the vote to Warmington's 44.5%, giving the incumbent a 95% chance of reelection 1. A poll reported Oct. 7 showed a narrower nine-point margin between the candidates 3.

Ayotte is running on a record that includes signing legislation for bail reform, housing, and school cellphone restrictions 3. Warmington, a former executive councilor, has proposed suspending the state gas tax and seeking consumer refunds on tariffs to lower costs 3. The contest is taking place under revised state election laws that include new restrictions on voter identification 6.

What to watch

The release of official certified election results by the New Hampshire Secretary of State will establish the winner. Final vote tallies posted on the state’s election website would confirm the margins between the candidates. An announcement by the New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission would settle any potential recount requests or certification disputes.

Read the full brief · how we got here

How we got here

Both candidates secured their party nominations in the Sept. 8 primary 8. Ayotte won the Republican primary with 91.7% of the vote, while Warmington ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination 4. New Hampshire is one of seven states identified as having significant changes to election laws since 2022 6.

References · 5
  1. 1pollsmax.com — 2026 New Hampshire Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls
  2. 3wcax.com — Campaign Countdown: The candidates for NH governor
  3. 4nbcnews.com — New Hampshire Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Results: Kelly Ayotte, Cinde Warmington and More
  4. 6votingrightslab.org — 2026 Battleground Report: How Voting Rules Have Changed Since the 2022 Midterms - Voting Rights Lab
  5. 8apnews.com — New Hampshire Governor Primary Election Live Results 2026 | AP News

What would close this

0 of 3 met
Official certified election results are released by the New Hampshire Secretary of State.open
Final vote tallies are posted on the state’s election website.open
Any recount or certification decision is announced by the New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission.open
If none of these happen, this page closes automatically on .

Timeline

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Link

When we started following: Incumbent Kelly Ayotte holds 11-point lead in New Hampshire gubernatorial forecast as general election enters final month

Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington by 11 percentage points in a forecast published Oct. 13 1. The model gives Ayotte a 95% chance of reelection, projecting she will receive 55.5% of the vote compared to 44.5% for Warmington 1. A separate poll reported Oct. 7 showed a narrower nine-point margin 3.

Both candidates secured their party nominations in the Sept. 8 primary 8. Ayotte won the Republican primary with 91.7% of the vote 4, while Warmington ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination 4.

Ayotte is campaigning on a first-term record that includes signing bail reform, housing legislation, and school cellphone restrictions 3. Warmington, a former executive councilor, has proposed suspending the state gas tax and seeking consumer refunds on tariffs to address rising costs 3. The race is one of seven identified as having significant changes to state election laws since 2022, including new restrictions on voter identification 6.

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