- Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win74%
- Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win23%
- John James and Mike Rogers win6%
- John James and Abdul El-Sayed win1%
The story so far
written Sep 27What is happening
Control of the Michigan executive branch and a U.S. Senate seat depends on whether Democratic nominees Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed can maintain leads in the final five weeks of the 2026 campaign [2][12]. A co/efficient poll conducted Sept. 21-23 shows Benson leading Republican John James 47% to 44% in the gubernatorial race [5][6]. In the contest for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Debbie Stabenow, El-Sayed holds a 7-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers as of Sept. 22 [12]. These margins support a 74% market probability for a dual Democratic victory on Kalshi.
Benson, the current Secretary of State, is running alongside state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks [4][7]. Her 3-point lead in the latest co/efficient survey follows a wider 17-point lead recorded in a Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 16-20 [6]. El-Sayed, who secured the Democratic nomination on Aug. 4, faces Rogers, a former U.S. Representative [8][12].
What to watch
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Benson and El-Sayed both advanced from the Aug. 4 primary, where El-Sayed defeated opponents including Haley Stevens to secure the progressive nomination [8][10][11][14]. Benson officially entered the race for governor in January 2025 and selected Brinks as her running mate on Aug. 19, 2026, following her primary win [4][7]. The Senate seat became open after incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement [2][12].
References · 10
- [2]smarter.vote — 2026 Michigan Governor Election - smarter.vote
- [4]michiganbanner.org — Jocelyn Benson announces candidacy for Michigan Governor
- [5]pollsmax.com — 2026 Michigan Governor Polls | Polling Average & Latest Polls
- [6]nytimes.com — Michigan Governor Race Polls: Benson vs. James - The New York Times
- [7]clickondetroit.com — Michigan Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson announces ...
- [8]nbcnews.com — Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, notching a ...
- [10]usnews.com — How Abdul El-Sayed Went From Political Oblivion to Progressive ...
- [11]michiganindependent.com — Abdul El-Sayed wins Democratic nomination for Michigan open Senate seat
- [12]thehill.com — Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 7 points in new poll
- [14]apnews.com — Michigan Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Benson and El-Sayed maintain leads in Michigan as general election polling enters final weeks
Democratic nominees Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed hold leads in their respective races for Governor and U.S. Senate as of September 27, 2026. A poll by co/efficient (R) conducted Sept. 21-23 shows Benson leading Republican John James 47% to 44% [5][6]. This narrow margin follows a Sept. 16-20 Suffolk University survey that placed Benson 17 points ahead [6]. Benson, the current Secretary of State, won the Aug. 4 primary and selected state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks as her running mate [2][7]. These developments support the 74% likelihood of a Benson and El-Sayed dual victory currently priced on Kalshi.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 7 percentage points in a poll released Sept. 22 [12]. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination on Aug. 4 after defeating primary opponents including Haley Stevens [8][10][11]. Rogers, a former U.S. Representative, is the Republican nominee for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow [2][12]. The general election for both offices is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026 [2].