- Troy Jackson63%
- Susan Collins37%
The story so far
written Sep 26What is happening
Control of a U.S. Senate seat and the partisan balance of the 120th Congress depend on the outcome of the Maine general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [11]. Democratic candidate Troy Jackson and Republican incumbent Susan Collins are the two primary contenders for the seat [11]. Current market pricing on Kalshi reflects a 62% probability for a Jackson victory compared to 37% for Collins [11].
The Maine Secretary of State’s Office is currently preparing election infrastructure for the November vote, following the conclusion of primary contests earlier this year [10]. The office confirmed that the general election ballot is set after the Democratic field narrowed in July [4][9].
What to watch
The Maine Secretary of State must certify the official election results following the November 3 vote to formalize the winner [1]. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes, the state will conduct ranked-choice voting tabulations to determine the Senator-elect [5][6].
The winning candidate will be declared the Senator-elect by the state’s election board once all tabulations are complete [1]. The final step in the process occurs on January 3, 2027, when the new Senator is sworn in on the first day of the new Congress and added to the official Senate roster [8].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
The Democratic primary field shifted significantly in July 2026 when front-runner Graham Platner withdrew from the race [9]. Shortly after, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ended her own campaign for the Democratic nomination on July 19 to focus on her role in election administration [4]. These withdrawals left Troy Jackson as the Democratic nominee to face the incumbent, Susan Collins, in the general election [11][12].
Maine utilizes ranked-choice voting for federal elections, a process managed by the Secretary of State's Office to ensure a majority winner [5][7]. The office issued updates on election processes in early September to prepare voters for the upcoming November cycle [10].
References · 10
- [1]maine.gov — Election Results/Data | SOS - Maine
- [4]themainewire.com — Secretary of State Shenna Bellows Ends U.S. Senate Campaign, Narrowing ...
- [5]maine.gov — Maine Secretary of State's Office announces additional races for Ranked ...
- [6]maine.gov — Maine Secretary of State's Office announces ranked choice tabulations
- [7]270towin.com — Maine Primary Ranked Choice Voting Results - 270toWin
- [8]congresscountdown.com — New Members of Congress (119th): All 81 Freshmen — 72 House, 9 Senate
- [9]maine.gov — Secretary of State's Office confirms receipt of official withdrawal by ...
- [10]einnews.com — General Election is two months away; Secretary of State's Office ...
- [11]ballotpedia.org — United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpedia
- [12]projectcuria.com — Maine 2026 U.S. Senate election · Project Curia
What would close this
0 of 4 metTimeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Troy Jackson and Susan Collins set for November general election following Democratic nominee withdrawal
Troy Jackson (D) and incumbent Susan Collins (R) are the candidates for the Maine U.S. Senate general election on Nov. 3, 2026 [11]. The Democratic field narrowed after primary front-runner Graham Platner withdrew from the race on July 10 [9]. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows subsequently ended her own campaign for the nomination on July 19 to focus on election administration [4]. These shifts solidified the general election matchup, where Kalshi currently prices Jackson as the 62% favorite against Collins at 37%.