- Anthropic56%
- SpaceX42%
- OpenAI1%
- ByteDance0%
- Stripe0%
- Databricks0%
The story so far
written Oct 2What is happening
Anthropic is seeking a public valuation exceeding $2 trillion in a prospectus seen on September 28, 2026 [2]. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, reporting a net loss of $42 billion for 2025 alongside plans for $518 billion in infrastructure spending [11][2]. These figures place Anthropic as the 58% favorite on Polymarket to be the largest IPO by market cap this year, followed by SpaceX at 40% and OpenAI at 1%.
Financial disclosures show Anthropic reached an annualized revenue run rate of $65 billion at the end of July 2026, an increase from $9 billion at the end of 2025 [3][4]. The company reported preliminary second-quarter revenue of $11.5 billion and positive adjusted operating income [5]. OpenAI also filed confidential IPO paperwork following its transition to a public benefit corporation in December 2025, with revenue reaching $40 billion as of August 2026 [6][3].
What to watch
A public filing of the S-1 document would provide the official price range and the number of shares offered to the market. The announcement of a formal IPO date by Anthropic or SpaceX would determine the timeline for first-day closing market cap data. A statement from ByteDance regarding its sidelined IPO plans would clarify if its $1 trillion gray-market valuation will enter public trading in 2026 [7].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
ByteDance sidelined its IPO plans as of June 22, 2026, despite its valuation near $1 trillion in private markets [7]. Anthropic's June 1 filing initially indicated a $965 billion valuation based on a $47 billion revenue run rate [8][11]. The September prospectus update increased the target valuation to over $2 trillion as the company scales its AI infrastructure [2].
References · 8
- [2]cnbc.com — Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision, surging ... - CNBC
- [3]techcrunch.com — Anthropic's annualized revenue surges to $65B - TechCrunch
- [4]unite.ai — Anthropic Run-Rate Revenue Hits $65 Billion as IPO Looms
- [5]cnbc.com — Anthropic revenue jumps to over $11.5 billion in Q2: report - CNBC
- [6]testml.org — Is OpenAI a Public Company? IPO Status Explained - testml.org
- [7]aiweekly.co — ByteDance Sidelines IPO as Gray-Market Valuation Nears $1 Trillion
- [8]neuralmindmastery.com — Anthropic Files S-1 at $965B Valuation, $47B ARR
- [11]outgrave.com — Anthropic IPO Filing June 2026 — $965B Valuation, S-1 SEC ... - OutGrave
Timeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Anthropic advances toward 2026 IPO with $2 trillion valuation target following confidential SEC filing
Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026 [11]. A prospectus seen by Reuters on September 28, 2026, indicates the company is seeking a public valuation of more than $2 trillion [2]. The filing reports a net loss of $42 billion in 2025 and plans for $518 billion in infrastructure spending [2]. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion at the end of July 2026, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025 [3][4]. The company reported preliminary Q2 2026 revenue of $11.5 billion and positive adjusted operating income [5].
OpenAI also filed confidential IPO paperwork and transitioned to a public benefit corporation in December 2025 [6][3]. Its revenue reached $40 billion as of August 2026 [3]. ByteDance sidelined its IPO plans as of June 22, 2026, despite a gray-market valuation near $1 trillion [7]. Polymarket currently prices Anthropic at 58% to be the largest IPO of 2026, with SpaceX at 40% and OpenAI at 1%.