- Likud99%
- Yashar1%
- Together0%
- Shas0%
- The Democrats0%
- Otzma Yehudit0%
The story so far
written Oct 22What is happening
Israeli voters determine the composition of the 26th Knesset on October 27, 2026, a decision that dictates which leader receives the presidential mandate to form a governing coalition 1. A final average of nine polls published through October 21 shows the Yashar list led by Gadi Eisenkot and the Likud list led by Benjamin Netanyahu in a statistical tie 6. Yashar averages 21.9 seats against 21.1 seats for Likud 6.
The pro-Netanyahu bloc currently averages 52.2 seats, while the opposition bloc averages 51.4 seats 6. Both groupings remain short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat legislature 6. On Polymarket, Yashar leads at 70% (at writing) while Likud is priced at 31% (at writing). Other outcomes including Together, Shas, The Democrats, and Otzma Yehudit are priced at 0% (at writing), 0% (at writing), 0% (at writing), and 0% (at writing) respectively.
What to watch
Polls are scheduled to close at 22:00 on October 27, followed by the release of exit polls 1. The Central Elections Committee is expected to begin publishing counted ballots around 01:00 on October 28 1. Approximately 90% of the count is anticipated by 08:00 that morning 1.
Official certified results showing the final seat distribution are scheduled for publication on November 4 1. Following this, the President will consult with party lists to hand a mandate to a leader to form a government 1. The Knesset swearing in the new government and announcing the prime ministerial appointment would settle the transition process.
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
The Central Elections Committee and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a joint statement on October 15 regarding election preparations 7. Recent polling data from October 21 indicates that a new list led by Ofer Winter fell short of the threshold required to enter the Knesset 10. That same data showed the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 51 seats 10.
Previous election cycles have seen the President designate a Prime Minister following consultations with all parties that crossed the electoral threshold 4. The legal process requires a party or coalition to obtain the highest number of seats or demonstrate a viable path to a 61-seat majority to secure the premiership 16.
References · 5
- 1thepetek.com — Israel Election Results 2026: Live Seat Count · The Petek
- 4andina.pe — Peru welcomes designation of Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister
- 6news.itsbaba.com — Knesset Election 2026: Every Poll, the Average and the Results · baba News
- 7gov.il — Joint statement by the Spokespersons of the Central Elections Committee ...
- 10timesofisrael.com — ToI poll: Ofer Winter falls short of Knesset, pro-Netanyahu bloc drops ...
What would close this
0 of 3 metTimeline
5newest firstParties outline coalition strategies as updated estimates set Knesset entry threshold at 166,000 votes
New estimates from the Taub Center indicate parties will require approximately 166,000 votes to cross the electoral threshold, assuming voter turnout matches 2022 levels 1. Political leaders have begun detailing post-election maneuvers, including plans to prevent a caretaker government and conditions for joining Zionist coalitions 1.
- The Taub Center updated the estimated vote count needed to enter the Knesset to 166,000 1.
- Ahmad Tibi announced a plan to oust Benjamin Netanyahu following the election if no bloc secures a majority, aimed at preventing him from leading a caretaker government 1.
- The Reservists Party stated it would only join a coalition of Zionist parties but did not rule out a government led by Netanyahu 1.
- Benjamin Netanyahu stated the next defense minister would come from the Likud list rather than Otzma Yehudit, though he did not name a specific candidate 1.
- Yashar leads at 70% (at writing) on Polymarket, while Likud is priced at 30% (at writing) 1.
Religious Zionist voters shift away from Likud ahead of October 27 election
Recent polling indicates a significant portion of Religious Zionist voters are abandoning Likud due to concerns over corruption and a lack of religious candidates in realistic list positions. This shift impacts the electoral base for Likud, currently priced at 30% (at writing) on Polymarket, while Yashar leads at 71% (at writing).
- Approximately 56% of Religious Zionist voters who previously supported Likud have left the party, according to pollster Shmuel Rosner 1.
- Voters cited a perceived preference for political survival over ideology and a shortage of religious candidates in winnable spots as primary reasons for the departure 1.
Opposition bloc majority chance falls to 2.7% as minor parties struggle to clear electoral threshold
New electoral modeling on October 22 shows the Zionist Opposition's chance of securing a 61-seat majority has decreased to 2.7%, while the Netanyahu-aligned bloc holds a 6.3% chance. The shift follows updated projections for smaller parties, with the Religious Zionism–Zehut list maintaining an 87.3% chance of entering the Knesset while others like Blue and White remain below the threshold.
- Modeling released October 22 indicates the Zionist Opposition's probability of a majority fell by 1.0 percentage point, while the Netanyahu-aligned bloc rose by 0.6 points 4.
- The Religious Zionism–Zehut list has an 87.3% chance of clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold, whereas the Reservists–Economic list stands at 35% and Blue and White at 2.3% 4.
- Yashar leads at 70% (at writing) on Polymarket, while Likud is priced at 30% (at writing) 4.
Opposition bloc widens lead to 53 seats as Central Elections Committee disqualifies Arab party lists
Analysis of major network polling on October 22 shows the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot maintaining 53 projected seats, while the pro-Netanyahu bloc has declined to 50 seats. Separately, the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify all Arab political party lists from the October 27 election, a decision facing a Supreme Court challenge.
- The Yashar list is projected to win 22 seats, leading Likud at 20 seats, while the broader opposition bloc holds a three-seat advantage over the current coalition 5. This maintains Yashar as the frontrunner at 70% (at writing) on Polymarket, with Likud at 31% (at writing).
- The Central Elections Committee voted September 23 to disqualify the United Arab List (Ra'am) and the Joint List from the upcoming election 4.
- Legal challenges against the disqualification of Arab lists and candidates are scheduled for Supreme Court hearings next week 4.
When we started following: Yashar and Likud tied in final polls five days before Israeli legislative election
Israel is scheduled to vote for the 26th Knesset on October 27, 2026 1. A final average of nine polls published through October 21 shows the Yashar list led by Gadi Eisenkot and the Likud list led by Benjamin Netanyahu in a statistical tie, with Yashar averaging 21.9 seats and Likud 21.1 seats 6. The pro-Netanyahu bloc currently averages 52.2 seats, while the opposition bloc averages 51.4 seats, both short of the 61 seats required for a majority 6.
Polls are scheduled to close at 22:00 on October 27, followed by the release of exit polls 1. The Central Elections Committee is expected to begin publishing counted ballots around 01:00 on October 28, with approximately 90% of the count anticipated by 08:00 that morning 1. Official results are scheduled for publication on November 4, after which the President will consult with party lists to hand a mandate to a leader to form a government 1.
On Polymarket, the "Israeli Legislative Election Winner" market prices Yashar at 70% (at writing) and Likud at 31% (at writing). Other outcomes including Together, Shas, The Democrats, and Otzma Yehudit are priced at 0% (at writing), 0% (at writing), 0% (at writing), and 0% (at writing) respectively.