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Google releases Gemini 4 Argon for public and developer access
Google released Gemini 4 Argon for a global public rollout on October 13, 2026. The company made the model accessible to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers through the Gemini app and provided developer access via the Gemini API. This launch followed a September 30 announcement and a restricted access period for participants in the Fairwind Program.
The model featured a 1-million-token context window and specialized capabilities for agentic coding and economic-impact tasks. Technical evaluations showed the model outperformed competitors on the DeepSWE v1.1 benchmark and recorded leading results on the Vals Index for finance and legal tasks.
Polymarket prices for the October 13 release date reached 100 cents on October 14, 2026, as the rollout was completed. Google set introductory API pricing at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens. The company scheduled a price increase for these services to take effect on November 30, 2026.
The story so far
edited Oct 14 · 2 paragraphs changedWhat is happening
Google released Gemini 4 Argon for public rollout on October 13 1. The model is now accessible to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers via the Gemini app and to developers through the Gemini API 1112. Technical specifications include a 1-million-token context window and specialized performance in agentic coding and economic-impact tasks 1. The model recorded leading results on the Vals Index for finance and legal tasks and outperformed competitors on the DeepSWE v1.1 benchmark 1.
On Polymarket, October 13 leads at 100% 2. This development settles the question of the public release date, which Google previously declined to name during the staged rollout 6. The release also positions Gemini 4 Argon as a leading contender in markets for the best AI model by late October, where it currently holds a 71% implied probability 1.
updated Oct 14 · 1 earlier version
Updated Polymarket price token to reflect the 100% outcome following the October 13 release [1, 2].
Google released Gemini 4 Argon for public rollout on October 13 1. The model is now accessible to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers via the Gemini app and to developers through the Gemini API 1112. Technical specifications include a 1-million-token context window and specialized performance in agentic coding and economic-impact tasks 1. The model recorded leading results on the Vals Index for finance and legal tasks and outperformed competitors on the DeepSWE v1.1 benchmark 1.
On Polymarket, the leading outcome for the release date is 100% 2. This development settles the question of the public release date, which Google previously declined to name during the staged rollout 6. The release also positions Gemini 4 Argon as a leading contender in markets for the best AI model by late October, where it currently holds a 71% implied probability 1.
Google set introductory API rates for the model at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens 1. These rates are scheduled to increase on November 30 1. The launch follows the cancellation of Gemini 3.5 Pro and leadership changes at DeepMind 1.
added Oct 14
Added new facts regarding API pricing, scheduled price increases, and corporate context from the latest development [1].
What to watch
A statement from Google would confirm the resolution of the Polymarket prediction market to match the official announcement date. Google updates to the Gemini product documentation would list Argon as an active model across all regions. The final settlement of the market on November 1 would conclude the tracking of the release timeline 2.
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on September 30 6. The company initially limited access to cybersecurity defenders participating in the Fairwind Program 6. During this staged rollout, Google declined to provide a specific date for the general public release 6. Prior to the October 13 launch, prediction markets tracked several potential release windows throughout the month 31314.
References · 8
- 1polymarket.com — Polymarket
- 2polymarket.com — Gemini Argon released on...?
- 3polymarket.com — Will Gemini Argon be released on October 10, 2026?
- 6rg.org — Polymarket Odds Today: Gemini 4.0, Brazil Runoff, MLB Playoffs
- 11blog.google — Gemini 4 Argon comes to the Gemini app.
- 12blog.google — Gemini 4 Argon is now available for developers.
- 13polymarket.com — Gemini Argon released on...? Predictions & Odds 2026
- 14polymarket.com — Gemini 4.0 released by...? Predictions & Odds 2026
What was resolved
1 of 4 metTimeline
2newest firstPolymarket prices October 13 release at 100% following Gemini 4 Argon rollout
Polymarket outcomes for Gemini 4 Argon release dates on or after October 13 have reached 100% following the model's global launch 1. The rollout includes developer access via the Gemini API and availability for Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers 1.
- Polymarket prices for the October 13 release date and subsequent windows through October 31 have moved to 100¢, while dates prior to the launch are priced at 0¢ 1. October 13 leads at 100% on Polymarket 1.
- Google set introductory API pricing at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, with a scheduled price increase on November 30 1.
Full analysiswritten from the full pages behind this update
What happened
Google launched the Gemini 4 Argon model for global public use on October 13, 2026 1. The release follows a September 30 announcement that initially restricted access to cybersecurity partners through the Fairwind Program 1. The model is now available to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers via the Gemini application and the Antigravity coding platform 1. Developers and enterprise users can access the model through the Gemini API 1. Google set introductory API rates at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens 1. These rates are scheduled to increase on November 30 1. The launch follows the cancellation of Gemini 3.5 Pro and leadership changes at DeepMind as the company attempts to match benchmarks set by OpenAI and Anthropic in multi-step reasoning and complex coding 1.
Why it matters
The October 13 launch settles the primary condition for related prediction markets, which required the model to be publicly accessible via open beta or rolling waitlist signups rather than closed private access 1. On Polymarket, the outcome for a release by October 13 is priced at 100¢, reflecting the confirmed availability 1. Conversely, outcomes for dates prior to the launch, including June 30, August 31, and October 12, are priced at 0¢ 1. October 13 leads at 100% on Polymarket 1. The market rules specify that the model must be explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or recognized as the successor to Gemini 3 to qualify for resolution 1. The release of Argon meets these criteria, whereas products such as Gemini 3.0 Flash or Gemini 2.5 would not have triggered a "Yes" resolution 1. For enterprise users, the current pricing structure remains temporary, with the November 30 price hike serving as a deadline for early adoption at the introductory rate 1.
What's next
The Polymarket event for the Gemini 4.0 release is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026 1. Official information from Google serves as the primary resolution source, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting to verify that the model is accessible to the general public 1. A scheduled increase in API pricing will take effect on November 30 1. Market participants are monitoring subscriber access expansions and benchmark comparisons for indications of further model iterations or broader adoption following the global rollout 1.
When we started following: Google launches Gemini 4 Argon for public subscribers and API developers
Google released Gemini 4 Argon for public rollout on October 13 1. The model is now accessible to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers via the Gemini app and to developers through the Gemini API 1112. This follows a September 30 announcement and a limited access period for cybersecurity defenders in the Fairwind Program 6. Technical specifications include a 1-million-token context window and specialized performance in agentic coding and economic-impact tasks 1. The model recorded leading results on the Vals Index for finance and legal tasks and outperformed competitors on the DeepSWE v1.1 benchmark 1.
On Polymarket, the leading outcome for the release date is 100% 2. This development settles the question of the public release date, which Google previously declined to name during the staged rollout 6. The release also positions Gemini 4 Argon as a leading contender in markets for the best AI model by late October, where it currently holds a 71% implied probability 1.