Brazil presidential election 2024 – tracking Lula’s campaign and final vote

What happened

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered the extension of voting hours until 19:00 Brasília time on October 25 14. The mandate applies to all polling stations nationwide that remained open at the time of the order 4. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) halted the totalization of results at 17:06, after processing 0.25% of the ballots, to evaluate the operational and technological impact of the two-hour extension 14.

The ruling followed a request from the coalition representing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which cited widespread public transport shortages 35. Reports of reduced bus fleets emerged from states including Bahia, Piauí, São Paulo, Alagoas, Paraíba, Pará, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, and Roraima 15. In Salvador, the Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Bahia (TRE-BA) ordered the arrest of the municipal Secretary of Mobility after 75 buses were prevented from leaving garages because they displayed campaign stickers 5. In São Paulo, the Workers' Party (PT) alleged that only 60% of the bus fleet was operational despite a court order for full service 3.

Justice Zanin issued the order at 16:32, citing the urgency of ensuring voter access under the terms of a prior Supreme Court ruling on election day transport 4. Before the STF intervention, TSE President Kassio Nunes Marques had requested information from regional courts regarding the "concrete extension" of transport impediments to determine the feasibility of an extension 6. The TSE reported that 900 electronic voting machines, representing 0.18% of the total, were replaced due to technical issues by the early afternoon of October 25 2.

Why it matters

The extension delays the certification of the presidential winner, as the TSE technical team must now reconcile the two-hour voting gap with the initial totalization process 1. The pause in result transmission occurred while the system was in its early phase, creating uncertainty regarding the final announcement timeline 1. The Federal Police opened an inquiry to investigate suspected electoral crimes related to the transport disruptions in Sergipe and is evaluating similar actions in other states 4.

The legal position of municipal officials is under scrutiny, as the coalition representing Lula has called for the arrest of mayors and secretaries in cities where transport was restricted 35. The TRE-RJ issued guidelines for polling stations that had already closed at 17:00, noting that machines already shut down cannot be reopened, though voters at those sites may be redirected or recorded 4. The market for the election outcome now depends on the TSE's ability to resume totalization after the 19:00 deadline 1.

What's next

The TSE is scheduled to resume the national vote totalization after 19:00 Brasília time on October 25 14. A final impact report from social media platforms regarding the reach of specific accounts is due to the Corregedor-Geral da Justiça Eleitoral six hours after the polls close [Source: What the story already says]. The publication of the certified winner by the TSE would settle the contest, with the formal certification of the results scheduled for completion by December 18 [Source: What the story already says].

What happened — the development in detail

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) authorized voters to conduct independent audits of the second-round election results starting at 17:00 Brasília time on October 25 1. Following the close of polls, each electronic voting machine generates a Boletim de Urna (BU), a printed report detailing the total turnout, individual candidate votes, and the sum of blank and null votes for that specific section 1. The TSE mandates the printing of five official copies of this document, one of which must be posted publicly at the entrance of the polling station 1.

Citizens may verify these local totals against the national count by scanning a QR code on the printed report using the "Boletim na Mão" or "e-Título" mobile applications 1. According to the Secretary of Information Technology for the Tribunal Regional Eleitoral do Rio de Janeiro (TRE-RJ), the mechanism allows any voter to act as an election auditor without prior accreditation 1. While the law prohibits mobile phones inside voting booths, the restriction does not apply to scanning the public reports in the external area of the station after 17:00 1. The TSE reported that 467 electronic voting machines had been replaced nationwide as of 10:01 on October 25 1.

Why it matters — the consequences

The audit mechanism provides a decentralized verification layer for the totalization process, which the TSE begins at 17:00 Brasília time 1. Because the totalization is the sum of all individual bulletins, the ability for citizens to capture data via QR codes allows for a direct comparison between physical station outputs and the digital data computed by the TSE 1. This process addresses the technical phases of the election: the initial counting by the machine, the transmission of physical media to electoral offices, and the final totalization in Brasília 2.

The timeline of the national count often reflects regional infrastructure differences, as data from the South and Southeast typically reach the TSE faster than results from the North and Northeast 2. Historical data shows this can lead to early leads for right-wing candidates before votes from other regions are fully integrated 2. In the 2014 runoff, a candidate led by 6.7 million votes at 18:20 before a lead change occurred at 19:32 as more regions were tallied 2. The current audit tools allow voters to monitor if their specific local results match the official portal's data regardless of when their region's total is integrated into the national count 1.

What's next

The TSE continues the national vote totalization through the evening of October 25. Voters can access the official "Resultados" application or the TSE web portal to compare their scanned local bulletins against the centralized data 1. The publication of the certified winner by the TSE would settle the contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The court has established December 18 as the deadline for the formal certification of the winners, confirming their eligibility for the 2027-2031 term.

What happened — the development in detail

The Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Bahia (TRE-BA) ordered the arrest of Salvador’s Secretary of Mobility, Pablo Souza, on October 25 for electoral crimes after at least 75 buses were prevented from leaving garages during the presidential runoff 2. The court issued the order following reports that the municipal fleet was reduced by more than 50% compared to business days, allegedly obstructing voter access 1. The Salvador municipal government stated the interruptions occurred because vehicles were found with campaign stickers for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which officials claimed constituted irregular propaganda 23. TRE-BA President Mauricio Kertzman Szporer mandated the immediate restoration of 100% of the fleet, setting a fine of R$ 1 million per hour for non-compliance by the city or transport companies 1.

In São Paulo, the coalition representing Lula filed a judicial request for the arrest of the municipal transport secretary on October 25, alleging that city buses were operating at only 60% capacity 1. This followed an October 24 ruling by Judge Tiago Ducatti Machado of the 1st Electoral Zone, which required the city to provide 100% of its fleet for the runoff 1. The municipal transport authority, SPTrans, stated it would comply but claimed it received the notification too late on Saturday to implement full service by Sunday morning 1.

As of 15:00 Brasília time on October 25, partial results from international voting stations showed Lula leading in 37 countries with approximately 71,458 votes (59% of valid votes) 237. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro led in 12 countries with 56,031 votes (41% of valid votes) 37. Bolsonaro secured approximately 80% of the vote in Japan and Israel, while Lula received over 80% in France and Germany 3. In Manaus, the police bomb squad deactivated three suspicious objects near the Osmar Pedrosa State School on the morning of October 25, later confirming the items contained no explosives 2.

Why it matters

The judicial interventions in Salvador and São Paulo address the legal requirement for free and accessible transport, which is critical for voter turnout in a race where final polls showed a technical tie 1. The imposition of R$ 1 million hourly fines and the use of police drones for monitoring in Bahia establish a high-stakes enforcement mechanism to prevent voter suppression 1. For the candidates, the international results provide early data points, though they represent a small fraction of the nearly 1 million eligible voters abroad and do not settle the domestic outcome 37. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) provides real-time auditing tools, such as the "Boletim na Mão" app, allowing parties and voters to verify digital results against physical printouts to settle questions of tally integrity 4.

What's next

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) begins the national vote totalization at 17:00 Brasília time on October 25 46. The court will release the first official results as data from the 499,248 polling sections are processed 6. While the TSE has until December 18 to formally certify the winners, the publication of the final totalization report on the evening of October 25 would settle the presidential contest 4. In five states—Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte, and Tocantins—voters are also settling runoff elections for governor today 1.

What happened — the development in detail

The Tribunal Regional do Trabalho da 2ª Região (TRT2) issued injunctions on October 25 against Carrefour, Assaí, and Grupo Pão de Açúcar (GPA) to ensure employees can vote in the presidential runoff 2. The rulings, issued by the 1st Labor Court of Carapicuíba and the 3rd Labor Court of Barueri, require these retailers to adjust work schedules for employees called to work on Sunday 2. The court mandated paid leave of at least two hours for those voting in the same city and at least four hours for those traveling to other municipalities 2.

The Sindicato dos Empregados no Comércio de Osasco e Região filed at least 14 actions leading to these decisions, alleging that retail firms were obstructing the right to vote 2. While the judges found insufficient evidence to characterize the actions as electoral harassment, they ruled the injunctions necessary to prevent work scales from conflicting with polling hours 2. The orders prohibit salary deductions, mandatory shift compensation, or use of hours banks for the time spent voting 2. Assaí stated on October 25 that it complies with labor and electoral laws and reallocates shifts preventively to allow for voting without pay loss 2.

These legal interventions coincide with the start of voting in a contest where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks to reverse a first-round deficit 3. In the October 4 election, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for Lula, a margin of 1.87 percentage points 3.

Why it matters

The TRT2 rulings establish a legal requirement for immediate paid leave, impacting major retail operations in the Greater São Paulo region during the final hours of the election 2. By prohibiting penalties or compensation requirements for voting time, the court removes financial barriers for retail workers in a race where high turnout is a central campaign strategy 2, 3.

The presidential contest is historically narrow, with the 2.2 million vote difference in the first round marking the smallest gap between two leading candidates since 1989 3. Lula’s campaign has focused on reducing voter abstention in peripheral urban areas and the Northeast to overcome this margin 3. The legal mandate for worker release directly addresses the risk that private sector work schedules could suppress turnout in these demographics 2. The outcome of the runoff will settle whether a candidate can successfully overturn a first-round lead for the first time in the current democratic era 3.

What's next

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) will continue to monitor the second-round vote through the close of polls on October 25. The TRT2 is expected to rule on the remaining 11 injunction requests filed by the trade union as the voting period progresses 2. Following the conclusion of voting, the TSE is scheduled to certify the winners by December 18 1. The publication of the certified results by the TSE will formally confirm the winner of the 2027-2031 presidential term.

What happened

Final surveys released October 24 report a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 2, 3, 4. A Globo/Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% of valid votes against 49% for Lula when applying a likely voter model 2. This model, which identifies respondents with the highest propensity to attend the polls, results in a gap within the survey's 2-point margin of error 2. In the same poll's spontaneous survey, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 44% to Lula's 42%, while indecision fell from 14% to 7% 2.

Datafolha reports Flávio Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 47% in total voting intentions 4. Using a likely voter model representing 76% of respondents who live near polling sites and voted in the first round, Datafolha places Flávio Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48% 4. The survey, conducted October 23-24, carries a maximum margin of error of 2.2 percentage points 4.

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey reports Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.8% of valid votes compared to 49.2% for Lula 3. The 1.6-point difference falls within the 1-point margin of error 3. This survey shows Lula leading among women (57.1%) and in the Northeast (62.3%), while Flávio Bolsonaro leads among men (58.9%) and in the South (60.3%), Southeast (53.1%), North (57.6%), and Central-West (62.1%) 3. Among evangelical voters, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 72.2% of intentions against 27% for Lula 3.

Why it matters

The technical tie across all major institutes on October 24 establishes a narrow margin for the October 25 runoff 2, 3, 4. High rejection rates for both candidates—49% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 47% for Lula in the Quaest poll—indicate a polarized electorate 2. The use of "likely voter" models by Datafolha and Quaest aims to account for the 20% abstention rate recorded in the 2022 presidential election 1. These models adjust results based on the probability of an elector actually appearing at the polls, considering factors such as distance to polling stations and past voting behavior 1, 4.

The AtlasIntel data shows the election outcome depends on regional and demographic splits, with Lula's 47.9% approval rating reaching its highest point in October despite 49.1% of respondents viewing the government as bad or poor 3. The 1.7% of voters who remain undecided or intend to vote blank/null in the AtlasIntel survey represent the final margin available to both campaigns 3.

What's next

The second-round vote takes place on Sunday, October 25 1. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) is scheduled to begin totalizing votes after polls close, with the publication of the certified winner settling the presidency for the 2027-2031 term. The TSE has set December 18 as the final deadline for the formal certification of the winners.

What happened

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) completed the final security verification and digital sealing of voting systems on October 24 16. During a ceremony at the court’s headquarters in Brasília, officials issued the "zerésima da totalização," a report confirming that no votes were pre-computed in the systems prior to the October 25 runoff 1. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques stated the procedure verified that no lines of programming were altered, omitted, or added 56. The audit covered the Transportador de Arquivos, Transportador Web, Receptor de Arquivos de Urna (RecArquivos), Informação de Arquivos de Urna (InfoArquivos), and the Sistema de Gerenciamento da Totalização (Sistot) 1.

Final polling data released on October 24 indicates a technical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 34. A Palver survey of 5,000 voters reports Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.5% and Lula with 49.5% of valid votes, a margin within the 2.2 percentage point error limit 3. A BTG/Nexus poll conducted October 23-24 shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading with 52.4% of valid votes against Lula’s 47.6% when applying a likely voter model that accounts for a projected 21% abstenion rate 4. In the same BTG/Nexus survey's stimulated response category, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 47% to Lula's 46% 4.

Why it matters

The certification of the voting systems by the TSE and external auditors, including the Ministério Público Federal and the Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil, is intended to secure the integrity of the transmission and totalization of results 15. Justice Nunes Marques noted that the 40 opportunities for fiscalization since October 2025 serve to stabilize republican institutions against disinformation 16.

The narrow polling margins place the outcome within the statistical margin of error for major surveys 34. Data from Palver indicates high voter certainty, with 80% of respondents stating they would not change their candidate 3. Demographic splits remain sharp; Flávio Bolsonaro holds 73% support among evangelicals and 64% in the South, while Lula maintains 66% support in the Northeast and 65% among Bolsa Família beneficiaries 3. Rejection remains a factor, as 49.1% of voters in the BTG/Nexus poll state they would not vote for Lula, compared to 46.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro 4.

What's next

Second-round voting is scheduled for Sunday, October 25, between 8:00 and 17:00 6. During the voting period, the TSE will conduct a "Test of Integrity" in every federal unit, where the content of pre-filled ballots is entered into electronic machines to verify that the count matches the record 2. A specific "Integrity Test with Biometrics" will also occur at polling stations using voluntary voters to enable the machines 2.

The TSE will manage the totalization of results as data is transmitted from regional electoral courts and overseas voting locations 6. The formal publication of the winner by the TSE would settle the presidential contest. The court has established December 18 as the deadline for the formal certification of the winners [What is happening].

What happened

A final CNT/MDA survey released October 24 reports a technical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with the candidates separated by 1.4 percentage points in valid votes 2. The poll, conducted between October 21 and 23, places Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3% of valid votes, which excludes blank, null, and undecided responses 2. In total voting intentions, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 46.3% against Lula’s 45%, a margin within the 2.2 percentage point error limit 2. Both candidates saw slight numerical retreats from the previous survey, where the Senator held 46.8% and the President 45.9% 2.

On this final day of the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro held a morning rally in the Savassi neighborhood of Belo Horizonte before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for an afternoon event in Barra da Tijuca 1. Lula campaigned in Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, during the morning and is scheduled to conclude his campaign with a march on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo this afternoon 1.

In the judiciary, Justice Nunes Marques denied a request on October 24 to authorize specific transportation for indigenous voters 1. Additionally, regional electoral courts have completed the selection of specific voting machines that will undergo audits during the runoff 1.

Why it matters

The technical tie reported by CNT/MDA suggests the final outcome may depend on voter turnout dynamics rather than shifts in preference 2. The survey indicates that a reversal of the current narrow lead for Flávio Bolsonaro would require a higher turnout of Lula supporters, which could be influenced by campaign mobilization or weather conditions on election day 2.

The candidates possess nearly identical potential vote ceilings and rejection levels 2. Lula’s potential vote—combining those who would certainly vote for him and those who might—stands at 50.8%, while his rejection rate is 47.4% 2. Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a potential vote of 50.5% and a rejection rate of 47.3% 2.

Legal protections for the voting process remain in effect for the October 25 poll. Workers retain the legal right to leave their place of employment to cast their ballots 1. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) has also verified the electoral systems and issued the "zerésima," the official report confirming that voting machines contain no pre-recorded votes before the start of the election 1.

What's next

The second-round vote takes place on Sunday, October 25 1. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) will begin processing results immediately after polls close, and the publication of the certified winner would settle the presidential contest. Following the vote, the TSE is scheduled to issue a final impact report on social media reach and recommendation metrics six hours after the polls close. The formal certification of the winners, which confirms their eligibility to take office in 2027, is scheduled for December 18.

What happened

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) issued a judicial order on October 23, 2026, compelling Meta and X to submit granular data reports every six hours regarding the reach of specific social media accounts 4. This mandate, issued by the Corregedor-Geral da Justiça Eleitoral, requires the platforms to detail view counts and recommendation metrics for content associated with two supporters of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro through the conclusion of the second-round vote 4. The court further prohibited these platforms from employing automated tools to artificially expand the reach of the profiles under investigation 4.

To facilitate enforcement during the final 48 hours of the campaign, the TSE established a priority communication channel between the technology companies and election officials 4. The platforms must provide a final impact report to the court six hours after the polls close on October 25 4. These measures follow a March 2026 TSE resolution, which updated the rules for party participation, stating that any political party with a suspended registration due to unfiled annual or electoral accounts is barred from elections unless the status is regularized by the convention date 1. That resolution also requires that convention minutes and attendance lists be transmitted via the CANDex system by the day following the meeting 1.

Why it matters

The TSE order places Meta and X under direct, high-frequency reporting obligations that subject their internal recommendation algorithms to judicial oversight during the peak of the election cycle 4. By requiring reports every six hours, the court has created a mechanism to monitor real-time shifts in digital engagement and potential artificial amplification 4. For the candidates, this oversight introduces a legal constraint on digital strategy in the final hours before the October 25 vote, as the court now possesses a direct line to platform data to verify compliance with electoral reach restrictions 4.

The legal standing of political entities remains tied to the strict filing requirements established in March 2026, where the failure to regularize accounts through the proper judicial channels—specifically Resoluções nº 23.604/2019 and 23.607/2019—results in an immediate bar from the ballot 1. The requirement for a final impact report six hours after the polls close ensures that the TSE will have a data-backed record of social media activity to review alongside the certified election results 4.

What's next

The second-round presidential vote takes place on Sunday, October 25. Meta and X are scheduled to deliver their final impact reports to the Corregedor-Geral da Justiça Eleitoral six hours after the polls close on that day 4. The publication of the certified winner by the TSE would settle the presidential contest. Following the vote, the court has set December 18, 2026, as the deadline for the formal certification of the winners, a step required to confirm their eligibility for the 2027-2031 term 1. Under the March 2026 rules, parties must also ensure all convention documentation and attendance lists are preserved until the expiration of the statute of limitations for electoral actions 1.