- $2.0–$2.25T29%
- $2.25–$2.5T22%
- $1.75–$2.0T20%
- $2.5–$2.75T11%
- $1.5–$1.75T4%
- <$1.25T2%
The story so far
written Oct 4What is happening
Anthropic is seeking a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion as it prepares for a public listing on the Nasdaq [1][5]. The company generated $4.59 billion in revenue in 2025, though it reported a net loss of approximately $42 billion for the same period [2][3][5]. Infrastructure costs reached $7.33 billion in 2025, and the company has disclosed $518 billion in future spending commitments [2][5]. These include a $100 billion pledge to AWS over ten years and a $15 billion annual agreement with SpaceX through May 2029 [2][5].
Polymarket prices the probability of a $2.25–$2.5 trillion closing market cap at 31% and a $2.0–$2.25 trillion outcome at 25% [2][8]. Nvidia was reportedly considering a $10 billion stake in the offering as of September 26, 2026 [6]. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the lead underwriters for the transaction [6].
What to watch
The public release of Anthropic's S-1 registration statement by the SEC would provide the final share count and price range required to calculate the expected market capitalization. The start of trading for Anthropic shares on the Nasdaq would establish the initial market price. The reporting of the closing price at the end of the first trading day will determine the final market capitalization for this period. While some reports indicate the listing could be completed by late October 2026, others suggest the date was moved from October to November 2026 [5][6].
Read the full brief · how we got here
How we got here
Anthropic submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1, 2026 [5][9]. The company is targeting a public listing as early as mid-October 2026 [5]. The 2025 revenue of $4.59 billion represents a twelvefold increase over the previous year [2][3]. A final IPO price and specific share count have not been set [2][8].
References · 7
- [1]zacks.com — Anthropic IPO 2026 Guide: Price Predictions, Dates, and Everything You ...
- [2]cryptotimes.io — Anthropic IPO Prospectus Shows $42B Loss as Crypto Perps Hold Near $2T
- [3]finance.yahoo.com — Anthropic IPO Prospectus Leaked: $42B Loss, Over Half A Trillion In ...
- [5]cryptobriefing.com — Anthropic IPO prospectus reveals $42B loss, $518B spending plans
- [6]ipos.fyi — Anthropic IPO Filed (2026): Date, Price Range & How to Buy
- [8]sakutto.ai — Anthropic IPO: Date, Price and What Is Confirmed | sakuttoAI
- [9]anthropic.com — Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1
What would close this
0 of 4 metTimeline
newest firstWhen we started following: Anthropic targets $2 trillion valuation for Nasdaq listing as early as mid-October
Anthropic is targeting a public listing on the Nasdaq as early as mid-October 2026 [5]. The company submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC on June 1, 2026 [5][9]. While the IPO was reportedly delayed from October to November 2026 [6], other reports indicate the listing could be completed by late October [5]. The company is seeking a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion [1][5].
Financial disclosures from the prospectus show Anthropic generated $4.59 billion in revenue in 2025, a twelvefold increase from the prior year [2][3]. However, the company reported a net loss of approximately $42 billion for 2025, driven by $7.33 billion in computing and infrastructure costs [2][5]. Anthropic has disclosed $518 billion in future infrastructure commitments, including a $100 billion ten-year pledge to AWS and a $15 billion annual agreement with SpaceX running through May 2029 [2][5].
Polymarket currently prices the $2.25–$2.5T closing market cap outcome at 31%, while the $2.0–$2.25T outcome is at 25%. A final IPO price and share count have not been set [2][8]. Nvidia is reportedly considering a $10 billion stake in the IPO as of September 26, 2026 [6]. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are serving as lead underwriters [6].